Moving to a New Year
House Views
December 2024
SG Kleinwort Hambros Monthly House Views December 2024
Our Main Convictions
Economic Outlook
Our Asset* Allocation*
Our Asset Allocation *in Detail*
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December 2024 House Views
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From an election year to a year of economic policy choices. In 2024, half the world's population will have gone to the polls. In 2025, the new political forces in power will introduce economic policies that could have a decisive impact on the economy. In the United States in particular, the new Trump administration is likely to confirm a policy of supporting the country's economy by cutting taxes and regulations and strengthening its industrial policy. At the same time, more restrictive trade and migration policies could once again generate tensions, particularly on inflation. In Europe, political uncertainty remains the order of the day, particularly in Germany and France. However, the economy could continue to hold up well, supported by confirmation of the fall in inflation and interest rates. In particular, the ECB's monetary policy could become much more accommodating. In China, measures to stimulate activity and support the property sector have been announced in 2024 and could be stepped up, especially in view of the potential tightening of US trade policy.
Investment strategy: maintaining our clear direction as we approach 2025. We continue to favour the US equity market, focusing on sectors and styles that would particularly benefit from favourable industrial policy and that would withstand the higher interest rate environment, in particular the value style and mid-caps. European equities could benefit from a stronger US economy, in particular companies and sectors that are both exposed to US activity but with limited risks in terms of trade restrictions. On the other hand, emerging equity markets could continue to suffer, as China appears to be the first country to be targeted by trade restrictions. Despite our marked strategic orientations, we are maintaining a highly diversified allocation. Uncertainties remain high, particularly those relating to the implementation of economic policy choices. In addition, the geopolitical context could become even more complex. We are therefore maintaining our highly diversified global positioning. We maintain a positive stance on the European bond market, particularly in less risky companies, and a neutral stance on gold.
Unless specified, all figures and statistics in this report are from Bloomberg and Macrobond on 10/12/2024 publication completion date. Past performance does not prejudge future performance. Investments may be subject to market fluctuations, and the price and value of investments and the resulting revenues may fluctuate downward and upward. Your capital is not protected, and original investments may not be recovered.